Track record · Worldview Intelligence

October 2026 scorecard #

Calls logged, due and resolved between 10.01 and 10.31. It updates with every published edition; misses count exactly like hits.

Calls logged72 come due in the period

Resolved21 hits · 1 misses

Brier score0.2410 is perfect · 0.25 is a coin flip

Hit rate50%calls that went the way we leaned

Odds band	Calls resolved	We said	It happened
Under 35%	0
35% to 64%	1	40%	100%
65% and over	1	65%	100%

CalibrationGroup the resolved calls by the odds we gave, then compare the average odds with the share that happened. A well-calibrated forecaster's "we said" and "it happened" columns move together. Bands fill in as calls resolve.

Open calls #

Call (yes or no)	Logged	By	Our odds
WHO-reported confirmed Bundibugyo cases exceed 10,000	09.27	10.31	85%
Security Council recommends a Secretary-General candidate	09.27	10.31	3%
US and Iran announce a signed ceasefire or phased reopening framework	09.27	11.02	5%
US unemployment rate for October 2026 is 4.3% or higher in BLS's first release	10.02	11.06	30%
FAO Food Price Index for October 2026 is above September's 136.0 in FAO's first release	10.02	11.06	55%
US, Ukrainian and Russian officials hold a trilateral meeting	10.09	11.15	55%
WHO or Nigeria's NCDC reports a second confirmed Bundibugyo case in Nigeria	10.23	11.20	15%
WHO reports more than 11,000 confirmed Bundibugyo cases	10.30	11.20	70%
PAHO commission finds the US has lost measles elimination status	09.27	11.30	75%
US-China AI dialogue (the Super Intelligence Dialogue) holds its next meeting by 11.30	09.27	11.30	45%
CDC's 2026 US measles count exceeds 5,000	10.30	11.30	90%
Fed raises rates again at or before the 12.08 to 12.09 meeting	09.27	12.09	70%
IMF PortWatch 7-day average of Hormuz transit calls reaches 60 or more (about half the IRGC's 125-a-day pre-war figure)	09.27	12.31	10%
Brent settles below $90 on any day	09.27	12.31	15%
Confirmed Bundibugyo case reported in South Sudan	09.27	12.31	30%
Federal funding lapse begins after the 12.11 continuing resolution expires	09.27	12.31	30%
IPC or its Famine Review Committee classifies famine (Phase 5 area) in Sudan	09.27	12.31	45%

Graded calls #

Call	Our odds	Outcome	Brier
WHO or Kenya's health ministry reports a locally acquired (not imported) Bundibugyo case in KenyaResolved 10.17	40%	Happened · miss	0.360
Supreme Court grants review on mandatory immigration detention without bond hearingsResolved 10.01	65%	Happened	0.123

How we gradeEvery Saturday edition checks each open call against its resolution source (WHO, BLS, FAO, the Security Council and others) and resolves any that have happened or come due. Each is scored as (our odds minus the outcome) squared, and the running average is published. Calls cover conflict and diplomacy, health, the economy and food, and courts and policy, never a share price. Where a prediction market or expert forecast exists, the edition prints it beside ours.

Corrections log #

Fixed	Edition	What we got wrong	What it should say
10.23	004	Policy tracker P5: the customs exemption for mailed medicines would be "indefinitely suspended" as of 10.22.	CBP had moved the compliance date for its new international mail entry process to 01.20.2027 on 10.15, before Edition 004 was built (Reuters via AJOT, 10.15).
10.16	003	Dashboard, Trade & globalization: "US-China truce expires 11.10 with no extension agreed."	Treasury Secretary Bessent said on 09.23 that the truce due to expire on 11.10 had been extended by two months, to 01.10.2027 (Reuters via Korea Times, 09.24).