Track record · Biotech & Pharma Intelligence

November 2026 scorecard #

Calls logged, due and resolved between 11.01 and 11.30. It updates with every published edition; misses count exactly like hits.

Calls logged06 come due in the period

Resolved11 hits · 0 misses

Brier score0.1600 is perfect · 0.25 is a coin flip

Hit rate100%calls that went the way we leaned

Odds band	Calls resolved	We said	It happened
Under 35%	0
35% to 64%	1	60%	100%
65% and over	0

CalibrationGroup the resolved calls by the odds we gave, then compare the average odds with the share that happened. A well-calibrated forecaster's "we said" and "it happened" columns move together. Bands fill in as calls resolve.

Open calls #

Call (yes or no)	Logged	By	Our odds
FDA approves Agios's mitapivat for sickle cell disease	10.25	11.06	5%
Sanofi duvakitug HS Ph2b (NCT07812116) shows Recruiting on ClinicalTrials.gov	10.01	11.15	70%
FDA approves BridgeBio's BBP-418 for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy 2I/R9	10.05	11.27	60%
CMS publishes negotiated maximum fair prices for the 15 drugs selected for 2028 (IRA third cycle)	10.01	11.30	90%
Viking's SUNRISE 1 Phase 3 of oral VK2735 (NCT07868835) shows Recruiting on ClinicalTrials.gov	10.13	11.30	55%
A biopharma acquisition of $5B or more is announced	10.01	12.31	80%

Graded calls #

Call	Our odds	Outcome	Brier
10-year Treasury closes below 5.00% on any dayResolved 10.22	35%	Happened · miss	0.423
uniQure announces FDA acceptance of the AMT-130 BLAResolved 11.02	60%	Happened	0.160
FDA approves Enspryng for thyroid eye diseaseResolved 10.15	65%	Happened	0.123
BMS announces topline results from the ALOFT-IPF Phase 3 of admilparantResolved 10.12	70%	Happened	0.090
FDA approves Viatris's MR-141 (phentolamine ophthalmic solution 0.75%) for presbyopiaResolved 10.16	70%	Happened	0.090
A biotech IPO prices on a US exchangeResolved 10.09	75%	Happened	0.063
FDA approves GSK's bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis BResolved 10.20	75%	Happened	0.063
The Fed raises rates at the 10.27 to 10.28 FOMCResolved 10.28	20%	Did not	0.040
City Therapeutics prices its IPO on a US exchangeResolved 10.15	80%	Happened	0.040
Iambic Therapeutics prices its IPO on a US exchangeResolved 10.14	80%	Happened	0.040
FDA approves Tecentriq + chemo for adjuvant stage III dMMR colon cancer (ATOMIC)Resolved 10.09	85%	Happened	0.023

How we gradeEvery edition checks each open call against primary sources (FDA and CMS notices, ClinicalTrials.gov, company statements, filings and official data) and resolves any that have happened or come due. Each is scored as (our odds minus the outcome) squared, the running average is published, and the month's scorecard closes on its last business day. Calls cover science, regulators and the economy, never share prices.

Corrections log #

Fixed	Edition	What we got wrong	What it should say
10.19	012 (our correction of 10.07)	Our 10.07 correction to Edition 012's Target Evidence Card for LRRK2 gave the Open Targets genetic association score for Parkinson's disease as 0.93, with 0.88 overall.	Those figures appear to include indirect evidence. On the direct basis our Target Evidence Cards use, Open Targets scores LRRK2 at 0.82 for Parkinson's disease and 0.76 overall (release 26.09, checked 10.16.2026), the values Edition 012 first printed. LRRK2's genetic link to Parkinson's is unchanged.
10.14	018	Section 02 said Alaunos's 10.13 release on completing its acquisition of Velaris gave no price, structure or concurrent financing.	Alaunos's 10.13 release reports a private placement of Series C non-voting convertible preferred stock, led by Fairmount, with gross proceeds of approximately $350 million. The PDBB tally now counts it.
10.13	014	A RED TEAM box on the atezolizumab (ATOMIC) approval said neoadjuvant checkpoint blockade, as in NICHE-2, may move treatment before surgery and shrink the adjuvant market, without saying what kind of study NICHE-2 was.	Clarification: NICHE-2 was a single-arm Phase 2 of nivolumab plus ipilimumab given before surgery in resectable, locally advanced dMMR colon cancer (NEJM, 2024). It shows the timing of treatment could move, not that it has.
10.13	013 to 018	Section 02 listed Candid via Rallybio ($505M) among reverse mergers with the largest concurrent financings, and the PDBB tally and heat map counted it as a 2026 financing.	Candid terminated its Rallybio merger on 05.03.2026 to be acquired by UCB (Rallybio 8-K, 05.04.2026), so the merger never closed and its concurrent financing is not counted. The tally now holds 467 financings and $66.4B.
10.09	013	Section 01 said Gilead and Amgen each rose about 2.6% on 10.07.	Amgen rose 2.6% and Gilead 1.8% on 10.07, per Robinhood daily closes.
10.09	013	Sections 01 and 02 said BioBucks' venture tracker title and body differ ($24.4B vs $24.9B).	The tracker's title gives $24.9B and $24.4B appears nowhere on the page; 193 rounds and about $24.9B were right.
10.09	013	Section 02 listed reverse-merger financings as Candid via Rallybio $506M and Avere via NextCure $500M.	Candid's concurrent financing was $505M. Avere's totaled $820M across two placements ($320M, then $500M), so it ranks first.
10.09	013	Sections 01 and 04 quoted the FOMC minutes as most participants judging a further hike "likely appropriate by year end."	The minutes say most participants assessed that another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end." The meaning was right; the quotation wasn't verbatim.
10.09	013	Item 05 dated Bayer's Kerendia sNDA acceptance release 10.07.	Bayer's release went out on 10.08.2026 (2:30 am EDT), still inside the window.
10.09	013	Section 10 said the GLOBE Part B final rule starts 04.01.2027.	Implementation begins 01.01.2027 with a voluntary reporting quarter; the five-year performance period starts 04.01.2027.
10.09	013	The Verified Catalyst Calendar marked Abbott's 10.21 Q3 results as Aggregator and counted 16 of 19 dates confirmed.	Abbott's own 09.30 release confirms Wednesday 10.21 before the open, so 17 of 19 dates were confirmed at the source.
10.09	013	Claim Check gave ATSN-201's LIGHTHOUSE registry primary as DLTs and adverse events only.	That is the Parts A and B primary. The registry (NCT05878860) also lists a Part C primary: the share of patients with a microperimetry gain of 7 dB or more at week 52. The Partial verdict stands.
10.07	012	Section 07 dated J&J's Delaware injunction blocking a Simponi (golimumab) biosimilar to 10.02.	The preliminary injunction order is dated 09.30.2026, with a $98.8M bond; the defendants filed a notice of appeal on 10.01.
10.07	012	Claim Check (02B) and Clinical readouts (05) put "no safety concerns" in quotation marks for Kariya's KP405, as if from its source.	The source, NeurologyLive's MDS report, contains no such phrase; it says the study was not designed or powered for efficacy. KP405's registered primary endpoints are safety measures, and no safety finding was quoted.
10.07	012	Sections 03 and 06 reported Kura Oncology's launch of Caspian Therapeutics, to develop the menin inhibitor KO-7246 for beta-cell regeneration, as news from the 10.06 to 10.07 window, with financing terms not disclosed and a Phase 1 planned.	Caspian launched on 09.09.2026 with a $50M Series A, in which Kura holds about 49%. The only news in the window was a 10.07 notice of an investor webcast on 10.13. KO-7246 is in IND-enabling work, with no Phase 1 date announced.
10.07	012	The Target Evidence Card for LRRK2 (section 06) gave the Open Targets genetic association score for Parkinson's disease as 0.82, with an overall score of 0.76.	Open Targets scores LRRK2 at 0.93 for genetic association with Parkinson's disease (MONDO_0005180) and 0.88 overall, re-pulled on 10.07.2026. The late-onset (0.94, overall 0.84) and young-onset (0.32) scores were right.
10.05	009	The Verified Catalyst Calendar listed a 10.10 FDA goal date for ifinatamab deruxtecan in previously treated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, marked as confirmed by the company.	Merck and Daiichi Sankyo voluntarily withdrew that BLA on 09.25.2026, so there was no 10.10 goal date. Edition 007 had it right; Edition 009 relied on an outdated release.