November 2026 scorecard #
Calls logged, due and resolved between 11.01 and 11.30. It updates with every published edition; misses count exactly like hits.
Calls logged29 come due in the period
Resolved00 hits · 0 misses
Brier scoren/a0 is perfect · 0.25 is a coin flip
Hit raten/acalls that went the way we leaned
| Odds band | Calls resolved | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35% | 0 | ||
| 35% to 64% | 0 | ||
| 65% and over | 0 |
CalibrationGroup the resolved calls by the odds we gave, then compare the average odds with the share that happened. A well-calibrated forecaster's "we said" and "it happened" columns move together. Bands fill in as calls resolve.
Open calls #
| Call (yes or no) | Logged | By | Our odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI states in its own channels that the tool-use pause on its most capable models has been lifted | 10.01 | 10.31 | 65% |
| Supermicro's reported revenue for the quarter ended 09.30.2026, in its 11.03 results, falls within its preliminary $18.5B to $19.5B range | 10.20 | 11.03 | 80% |
| Meta prices a bond offering totaling $20B or more (dollar and euro tranches combined) | 11.02 | 11.13 | 70% |
| Anthropic files an S-1 amendment that sets a price range for its IPO | 11.02 | 11.20 | 70% |
| A federal agency publishes a proposed or final rule requiring AI or SI incident notification (Federal Register or agency site) by 11.30 | 10.09 | 11.30 | 40% |
| Anthropic's Class A common stock begins trading on Nasdaq under ANT | 10.26 | 11.30 | 65% |
| After 10.27.2026, the White House publishes a new official document, beyond EO 14434 Sec. 2(a), barring the use of 'AI' or 'Artificial Intelligence' in official documents | 10.27 | 11.30 | 35% |
| FDA names the cohort for its expedited IND pilot | 10.01 | 12.18 | 75% |
| A court issues a ruling on the merits (summary judgment or verdict) in NYT v. OpenAI | 10.01 | 12.31 | 20% |
| Judge Lee rules on the summary judgment motions on fair use in Concord Music v. Anthropic (N.D. Cal.) by 12.31 | 10.21 | 12.31 | 45% |
Graded calls #
| Call | Our odds | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firmus Group lists on the ASXResolved 10.09 | 70% | Did not · miss | 0.490 |
| Anthropic holds an investor day on 10.14Resolved 10.14 | 40% | Happened · miss | 0.360 |
| The White House publishes an official document (executive order, memorandum or fact sheet on whitehouse.gov) establishing the Super Intelligence Force by 10.31Resolved 10.31 | 60% | Did not · miss | 0.360 |
| The White House officially names an AI czar (a White House statement, document or release) by 10.31Resolved 10.31 | 55% | Did not · miss | 0.303 |
| FieldAI or a lead investor confirms a raise of $700M or moreResolved 10.31 | 55% | Did not · miss | 0.303 |
| Alphabet raises its 2026 capital expenditure guidance above $205B at its Q3 resultsResolved 10.30 | 50% | Did not · miss | 0.250 |
| HHS or ARPA-H publishes a funding amount or a solicitation for SURPASSResolved 10.02 | 50% | Happened | 0.250 |
| Anthropic files a public S-1 with the SECResolved 10.26 | 55% | Happened | 0.203 |
| Microsoft publishes per-unit pricing for AutopilotResolved 10.31 | 40% | Did not | 0.160 |
| Gemini 4 Argon's paid API is generally available (Google's own pricing page lists it without a waitlist)Resolved 10.13 | 60% | Happened | 0.160 |
| Apple publishes an effective date or macOS version for its Full Disk Access changeResolved 10.31 | 40% | Did not | 0.160 |
| The Fed raises the federal funds rate at the 10.27 to 10.28 FOMCResolved 10.28 | 25% | Did not | 0.063 |
| The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.50% on any day (the outlook's bear trigger)Resolved 10.30 | 5% | Did not | 0.003 |
How we gradeEvery evening's edition checks each open call against primary sources (company statements, filings, agency notices, dockets and official data) and resolves any that have happened or come due. Each is scored as (our odds minus the outcome) squared, the running average is published, and the month's scorecard closes on its last business day. Calls cover technology, regulation, science and the economy, never a share price or an index level.
Corrections log #
| Fixed | Edition | What we got wrong | What it should say |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.01 | 034 | Intel's shares were said to have fallen 28.49% on Friday 10.30 | The official close was $65.76, down 28.58%; 28.49% was the last regular-hours trade |
| 11.01 | 033 | Alphabet's shares were said to have fallen 12.66% on 10.29 | The official close was down 12.64%; 12.66% used the last regular-hours trade |
| 10.02 | 005 and 006 | The executive order renaming AI 'Super Intelligence' was described as signed 09.30 | It was signed 09.29.2026 (EO 14434, 91 FR 63129, published in the Federal Register 10.02.2026); the 60-day APST clock runs from 09.29 |
As of Edition 036, Mon 11.02.2026. This page updates when an edition is published.
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