Track record · AI & Technology Intelligence

October 2026 scorecard #

Calls logged, due and resolved between 10.01 and 10.31. It updates with every published edition; misses count exactly like hits.

Calls logged1510 come due in the period

Resolved11 hits · 0 misses

Brier score0.2500 is perfect · 0.25 is a coin flip

Hit rate100%calls that went the way we leaned

Odds band	Calls resolved	We said	It happened
Under 35%	0
35% to 64%	1	50%	100%
65% and over	0

CalibrationGroup the resolved calls by the odds we gave, then compare the average odds with the share that happened. A well-calibrated forecaster's "we said" and "it happened" columns move together. Bands fill in as calls resolve.

Open calls #

Call (yes or no)	Logged	By	Our odds
Anthropic holds an investor day on 10.14	10.01	10.14	40%
The Fed raises the federal funds rate at the 10.27 to 10.28 FOMC	10.01	10.28	20%
OpenAI states in its own channels that the tool-use pause on its most capable models has been lifted	10.01	10.31	45%
The White House names an AI czar	10.01	10.31	45%
The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.50% on any day (the outlook's bear trigger)	10.01	10.31	25%
Alphabet raises its 2026 capital expenditure guidance above $205B at its Q3 results	10.01	10.31	50%
Microsoft publishes per-unit pricing for Autopilot	10.01	10.31	40%
Apple publishes an effective date or macOS version for its Full Disk Access change	10.02	10.31	40%
Firmus Group lists on the ASX	10.02	10.31	80%
FieldAI or a lead investor confirms a raise of $700M or more	10.02	10.31	55%
Anthropic files a public S-1 with the SEC	10.01	11.30	55%
Gemini 4 Argon's paid API is generally available (Google's own pricing page lists it without a waitlist)	10.01	11.30	60%
FDA names the cohort for its expedited IND pilot	10.01	12.18	75%
A court issues a ruling on the merits (summary judgment or verdict) in NYT v. OpenAI	10.01	12.31	20%

Graded calls #

Call	Our odds	Outcome	Brier
HHS or ARPA-H publishes a funding amount or a solicitation for SURPASSResolved 10.02	50%	Happened	0.250

How we gradeEvery evening's edition checks each open call against primary sources (company statements, filings, agency notices, dockets and official data) and resolves any that have happened or come due. Each is scored as (our odds minus the outcome) squared, the running average is published, and the month's scorecard closes on its last business day. Calls cover technology, regulation, science and the economy, never a share price or an index level.

Corrections log #

Fixed	Edition	What we got wrong	What it should say
10.02	005 and 006	The executive order renaming AI 'Super Intelligence' was described as signed 09.30	It was signed 09.29.2026 (EO 14434, 91 FR 63129, published in the Federal Register 10.02.2026); the 60-day OSTP clock runs from 09.29